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Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 17 brokers · 542 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-26.

Broker models frame GM as a margin-repair story rather than a growth story: total revenue is essentially flat in FY-2026 against the FY-2025 base, yet operating margin steps from 6.7% to 8.2% as a roughly $3.95bn North America cost drag reverses. From FY-2027 the modeled margin flatlines just above 8.3%, and the pricing tailwind that carried the prior two years is walked down to about zero by FY-2028. Every profit pool outside North America — International, GM Financial and Corporate — is modeled flat to lower. Incremental earnings growth therefore leans on a delayed volume recovery and a shrinking share count.

FY-2026's margin step-up is a cost reversal, not price — and the price line decays to zero by FY-2028

Line FY-2025A FY-2026E FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Prior-year base — — — — — —
Operating income/(loss) - North America Prior period $14.53bn $10.45bn $12.89bn $13.67bn -28.1% 14
Walk — — — — — —
Operating income/(loss) - North America - Volume Impact $-1.34bn $-315.95m $618.62m $593.38m +76.4% 8
Operating income/(loss) - North America - Mix impact $-117.43m $741.13m $349.91m $44.81m +731.1% 8
Operating income/(loss) - North America - Price Impact $1.05bn $856.75m $352.33m $-46.81m -18.5% 8
Operating income/(loss) - North America - Cost impact $-3.95bn $909.97m $-179.38m $-101.43m +123.0% 7
Operating income/(loss) - North America - Other Impact $931.83m $514.01m $-48.00m $59.46m -44.8% 7
Result — — — — — —
Operating income - GM North America - Operating $10.32bn $12.89bn $13.73bn $13.97bn +24.8% 14

North America is the only profit pool the street grows; International, GM Financial and Corporate all fade

Line FY-2025A FY-2026E FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
North America — — — — — —
Revenue - GM North America $155.34bn $154.46bn $158.65bn $160.67bn -0.6% 14
Operating income - GM North America - Operating $10.32bn $12.89bn $13.73bn $13.97bn +24.8% 14
International — — — — — —
Revenue - GM International $13.45bn $13.96bn $14.11bn $14.20bn +3.8% 14
Operating income - GM International Operations - Operating $695.56m $680.21m $607.88m $628.27m -2.2% 13
GM Financial — — — — — —
Revenue - GM Financial $16.98bn $17.28bn $17.49bn $17.65bn +1.8% 15
Operating income/(loss) - GM Financial - Operating $2.90bn $2.69bn $2.73bn $2.73bn -7.3% 14
Corporate — — — — — —
Operating income-Corporate and Eliminations $-918.60m $-1.09bn $-1.15bn $-1.22bn -18.5% 14
Group — — — — — —
Operating income/(loss) - Operating $12.75bn $15.14bn $15.69bn $15.83bn +18.7% 16
Operating margin(%) 6.7% 8.2% 8.3% 8.4% +1.5pt 16

Units, not price: worldwide wholesales only clear the FY-2025 level in FY-2027, and China JV volume never does

Line FY-2025A FY-2026E FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Units — — — — — —
Wholesale vehicle sales-Worldwide(K#) 3.84m Number 3.81m Number 3.89m Number 3.94m Number -0.7% 12
Wholesale vehicle sales - GM North America(K#) 3.33m Number 3.27m Number 3.35m Number 3.38m Number -1.7% 12
Wholesale vehicle sales - GM International(K#) 504,935 Number 536,499 Number 538,394 Number 543,581 Number +6.3% 11
Wholesale vehicle sales - China JV(K#) 2.04m Number 1.85m Number 1.86m Number 1.91m Number -9.3% 9
Wholesales vehicle sales - Including JV(K#) 5.85m Number 5.64m Number 5.71m Number 5.74m Number -3.5% 11
Revenue per unit — — — — — —
Avg rev / unit($) $44,014 $44,274 $44,491 $44,482 +0.6% 12
Avg rev / unit - GM North America($) $46,611 $47,182 $47,390 $47,379 +1.2% 12
Avg rev / unit - GM International($) $26,521 $26,113 $26,308 $26,317 -1.5% 12

The near term is agreed; the split is about FY-2028 durability, where operating EPS spans $10.55 to $17.69

Line Period Median Q1–Q3 Min–max Brokers
EPS Diluted - Operating($) FY-2028E $16.49 $15.25–$17.00 $10.55–$17.69 9
Operating income - GM North America - Operating FY-2028E $14.27bn $13.65bn–$14.99bn $10.16bn–$15.87bn 8
Shares - Diluted(M#) FY-2028E 824.03m Number 801.38m Number–887.74m Number 736.69m Number–928.00m Number 10
Operating income - GM International Operations - Operating FY-2027E $663.42m $548.49m–$732.68m $114.17m–$882.32m 12
Free cash flow - Automotives FY-2026E $6.01bn $4.07bn–$6.06bn $3.90bn–$6.85bn 5

The FY-2026 cash dip is capex, not earnings: Automotive FCF drops to $5.4bn, then recovers near $10bn

Line FY-2025A FY-2026E FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Cash generation — — — — — —
Net cash flows provided by/(used in) operating activities - Automotive $20.01bn $16.19bn $21.35bn $21.29bn -19.1% 9
Capital additions - Automotives $9.99bn $10.53bn $11.08bn $11.06bn +5.4% 8
Free cash flow - Automotives $9.09bn $5.38bn $9.99bn $10.25bn -40.8% 6
Per share — — — — — —
Shares - Diluted(M#) 970.36m Number 907.10m Number 870.78m Number 833.53m Number -6.5% 16
EPS Diluted - Operating($) $10.41 $13.44 $14.65 $15.79 +29.1% 15
Dividend per share($) $0.58 $0.88 $0.88 $0.64 +53.1% 11

The differentiated lines are thin: the segment walk, cash and EV rows carry far fewer brokers than the P&L

Headline revenue and operating income carry 13-16 brokers through FY-2027, but the segment walk lines carry 4-8 and Automotive free cash flow 4-6. The Cruise lines have not been revised since 2025, and the EV unit and IRA-credit lines are single-broker models — one analyst's view, not consensus. FY-2028 coverage thins to 8-10 brokers on most lines.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.