Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-29.
FY2028 EPS consensus up 8% in 180 days while revenue estimates barely move
FY2027 shows the same pattern, EPS up 7% over 180 days against revenue down 0.1%. Both years' revenue estimates sit below where they were 30 days ago, so none of the EPS upgrade is coming from a bigger top line.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $13.64 | $14.02 | $14.08 | $14.59 | +4.0% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $14.39 | $14.67 | $14.76 | $15.57 | +6.1% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $190.52bn | $191.59bn | $191.33bn | $190.32bn | -0.7% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $192.87bn | $194.05bn | $194.11bn | $194.00bn | -0.0% |
Normalized EPS has beaten consensus eight quarters running, five times by double digits
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 2 consecutive beats; EPS (normalized): 8 consecutive beats.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 | Revenue | $47.09bn | $48.03bn | +2.0% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $3.18 | $3.57 | +12.1% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $43.55bn | $43.62bn | +0.2% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $2.62 | $3.70 | +41.3% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $46.04bn | $45.29bn | -1.6% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.26 | $2.51 | +11.1% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $45.33bn | $48.59bn | +7.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.32 | $2.80 | +20.5% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $46.31bn | $47.12bn | +1.8% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.48 | $2.53 | +2.1% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $43.41bn | $44.02bn | +1.4% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.67 | $2.78 | +4.3% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $43.57bn | $47.70bn | +9.5% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $1.84 | $1.92 | +4.3% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $44.35bn | $48.76bn | +9.9% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $2.39 | $2.96 | +23.8% | Beat |
The beat streak is a normalized-EPS story; the GAAP line keeps landing short
FY2025 normalized EPS came in at $10.60 while GAAP EPS printed $3.27. Quarterly GAAP EPS has repeatedly undershot its own consensus mean — negative $3.60 against $1.75 in Q4 2025, $1.35 against $2.03 in Q3 2025, and $1.41 against $2.73 in Q2 2026. Consensus FY2026 GAAP EPS of $9.43 sits well below the $13.28 normalized line, and only six analysts publish it against 24 on the normalized number.
Consensus revenue grows about 2% a year to FY2028 while normalized EPS climbs from $13.28 to $15.57
Gross margin is modelled to widen every year, from 15.9% to 19.3%. Normalized net income rises just 1.3% between FY2027 and FY2028 while normalized EPS rises 6.7%, which implies a smaller share count. Coverage thins as the years extend, from 19 analysts on FY2026 revenue to 13 on FY2028.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $185.72bn | $190.32bn | $194.00bn | +0.4% | 19 | $183.02bn / $189.24bn |
| Gross margin | 15.9% | 18.0% | 19.3% | +5.3pt | — | — |
| EBITDA | $22.96bn | $23.76bn | $24.24bn | -7.2% | 12 | $18.42bn / $27.38bn |
| Net income (normalized) | $11.91bn | $12.34bn | $12.50bn | +18.7% | — | — |
| EPS (normalized) | $13.28 | $14.59 | $15.57 | +25.3% | 24 | $11.85 / $14.12 |
| EPS (GAAP) | $9.43 | $13.92 | $15.65 | +188.3% | 6 | $6.25 / $10.63 |
FY2028 EPS estimates span $10.55 to $17.80 across 13 analysts
FY2027 revenue estimates run from $183.5bn to $204.0bn on 20 analysts, a $20bn gap on a top line consensus expects to be close to flat. GAAP net income is far wider in relative terms, $8.8bn to $15.8bn on 10 estimates.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $15.57 | $10.55–$17.80 | 46.6% | 13 |
| Net income (GAAP) | FY2027E | $11.94bn | $8.78bn–$15.84bn | 59.1% | 10 |
| Revenue | FY2027E | $190.32bn | $183.48bn–$203.95bn | 10.8% | 20 |
| EBITDA | FY2027E | $23.76bn | $19.69bn–$28.10bn | 35.4% | 12 |
FY2029 is not a consensus — one to three analysts per line
Three analysts carry FY2029 revenue and normalized EPS; one carries FY2029 EBITDA and GAAP EPS. The FY2029 normalized EPS mean of $12.14 sits below the FY2028 mean of $15.57, but the two are not comparable — different analysts, different sample size.